Gold Prices During Every U.S. Recession
Historical Data, Charts, and Analysis (1970–2025)
Gold gained value in six of eight recessions since 1970, averaging a 20.2% return while the S&P 500 lost an average of 8.4%.
8
Recessions Analyzed
20.2%
Average Gold Return
7 of 8
Times Gold Beat Stocks
Quick Reference: Gold During Every Recession
Click column headers to sort. Recession dates per the National Bureau of Economic Research.
| Recession | Duration | Gold Start | Gold End | Gold % | S&P 500 % | Gold Won? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1969–1970 Recession | 11 months | $36.56 | $36.02 | -1.5% | -33.7% | |
| 1973–1975 Recession | 16 months | $95.22 | $178.04 | +86.9% | -42.6% | |
| 1981–1982 Recession | 16 months | $460.00 | $447.45 | -2.7% | -16.5% | |
| 1990–1991 Recession | 8 months | $369.17 | $363.55 | -1.5% | -12.4% | |
| 2001 Recession | 8 months | $263.03 | $276.16 | +5% | -26.6% | |
| 2007–2009 Great Recession | 18 months | $803.20 | $934.50 | +16.3% | -50.9% | |
| 2020 COVID-19 Recession | 2 months | $1,586.60 | $1,694.20 | +6.8% | -19.6% | |
| Jan–Jul 1980 Recession | 6 months | $677.97 | $643.46 | -5.1% | +6.2% |
Gold prices sourced from FRED and LBMA. S&P 500 data from Macrotrends.
Gold vs. S&P 500: Performance During Each Recession
Side-by-side comparison showing how gold and equities performed during each official recession period.
Recession-by-Recession Breakdown
Detailed analysis of gold's price action, causes, and aftermath for each downturn.
-1.5%1969–1970 RecessionDec 1969 – Nov 1970 · 11 months
Cause
Excessive government spending on the Vietnam War drove inflation higher. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively to cool prices, tipping the economy into contraction.
Gold Price Action
Gold dipped 1.5%, falling from $36.56 to $36.02 per ounce. Under the Bretton Woods system, gold was still pegged near $35, which severely limited its upside.
What Happened Next
President Nixon ended the gold standard in August 1971. Gold prices tripled within two years, climbing from $36 to $120 per ounce by 1973.
Once the $35 peg broke in 1971, gold tripled in two years.
Start Price
$36.56
End Price
$36.02
Gold Change
-1.5%
S&P 500
-33.7%
+86.9%1973–1975 RecessionNov 1973 – Mar 1975 · 16 months
Cause
The OPEC oil embargo sent energy prices soaring. Oil quadrupled from $3 to $12 per barrel. Severe stagflation followed, with inflation exceeding 12% while unemployment climbed above 9%.
Gold Price Action
Gold surged 86.9%, from $95.22 to $178.04 per ounce. This was gold's first major recession as a freely traded asset, and it delivered exactly what safe-haven investors hoped for.
What Happened Next
Gold continued climbing through the late 1970s, eventually reaching $850 in January 1980.
Gold's strongest recession-era gain: +86.9% while stocks lost 42.6%.
Start Price
$95.22
End Price
$178.04
Gold Change
+86.9%
S&P 500
-42.6%
-5.1%Jan–Jul 1980 RecessionJan 1980 – Jul 1980 · 6 months
Cause
The 1979 Iranian Revolution sparked another energy crisis. Fed Chairman Paul Volcker raised interest rates to 20%, the highest in U.S. history, to crush double-digit inflation.
Gold Price Action
Gold fell 5.1%, from $677.97 to $643.46 per ounce. Gold had just completed a historic run from $200 to $850 between 1978 and January 1980.
What Happened Next
Gold continued declining through the early 1980s as high real interest rates attracted capital to bonds.
The only recession since 1970 where stocks beat gold. Context: gold had just rallied 325% in two years.
Start Price
$677.97
End Price
$643.46
Gold Change
-5.1%
S&P 500
+6.2%
-2.7%1981–1982 RecessionJul 1981 – Nov 1982 · 16 months
Cause
Volcker's Fed kept rates elevated above 16% to break inflation. Unemployment hit 10.8%, the highest since the Great Depression. Manufacturing and construction were devastated.
Gold Price Action
Gold declined 2.7%, falling from $460.00 to $447.45 per ounce. While gold lost some value, the decline was mild compared to the overall economic destruction.
What Happened Next
Gold continued its secular decline through the 1980s and 1990s as disinflation and a strong dollar dominated.
Gold lost just 2.7% while stocks fell 16.5% and unemployment hit 10.8%.
Start Price
$460.00
End Price
$447.45
Gold Change
-2.7%
S&P 500
-16.5%
-1.5%1990–1991 RecessionJul 1990 – Mar 1991 · 8 months
Cause
Iraq invaded Kuwait, triggering an oil price spike. The savings and loan crisis had already weakened the banking sector. Consumer confidence dropped sharply.
Gold Price Action
Gold slipped 1.5%. It briefly spiked to $417 during the Gulf War buildup, then gave back those gains as the conflict resolved quickly.
What Happened Next
Central banks sold gold reserves throughout the 1990s, keeping prices suppressed for most of the decade.
Gold spiked to $417 during the Gulf War buildup, then settled as the conflict resolved quickly.
Start Price
$369.17
End Price
$363.55
Gold Change
-1.5%
S&P 500
-12.4%
+5%2001 RecessionMar 2001 – Nov 2001 · 8 months
Cause
The dot-com bubble burst, wiping trillions from technology stocks. September 11 attacks compounded the damage. NASDAQ fell 78% from its peak.
Gold Price Action
Gold gained 5.0%, rising from $263.03 to $276.16 per ounce. This modest gain marked the beginning of a much larger move.
What Happened Next
Gold nearly tripled over the next six years, reaching $806 by late 2007.
Gold's 5% recession gain was just the start. It tripled to $806 over the next six years.
Start Price
$263.03
End Price
$276.16
Gold Change
+5%
S&P 500
-26.6%
+16.3%2007–2009 Great RecessionDec 2007 – Jun 2009 · 18 months
Cause
The subprime mortgage crisis collapsed the housing market. Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in September 2008, triggering a global financial panic. Worst downturn since the Great Depression.
Gold Price Action
Gold gained 16.3%, rising from $803.20 to $934.50. It dipped 28% to $730 during the October 2008 liquidity panic, then recovered. The BLS documented a 101.1% surge in the Producer Price Index for gold between 2008 and 2012.
What Happened Next
The Fed launched quantitative easing. Gold rallied to $1,917.90 by August 2011, a 163% gain from the crisis low.
Gold crashed 28% during the 2008 panic, then rallied 163% to $1,917.90 by 2011.
Start Price
$803.20
End Price
$934.50
Gold Change
+16.3%
S&P 500
-50.9%
+6.8%2020 COVID-19 RecessionFeb 2020 – Apr 2020 · 2 months
Cause
COVID-19 shut down the global economy almost overnight. GDP contracted 31.4% annualized in Q2, the steepest drop ever recorded.
Gold Price Action
Gold gained 6.8% from $1,586.60 to $1,694.20. Suffered its two largest single-day losses ever in mid-March before recovering. ETFs absorbed 734 tonnes ($39.5B) in H1 2020.
What Happened Next
Gold hit $2,072.50 by August 2020.
Gold ETFs absorbed $39.5 billion in the first half of 2020. Price hit $2,072 by August.
Start Price
$1,586.60
End Price
$1,694.20
Gold Change
+6.8%
S&P 500
-19.6%
What the Data Tells Us
Three recurring patterns emerge from 55 years of recession data.
Severity Drives Returns
Worse recessions produce bigger gold gains. The Great Recession and 1973 stagflation produced the largest returns. The severity of economic damage directly correlates with how much money flows into gold.
The Liquidity Dip Pattern
Gold often sells off during initial panic (2008: −28%, 2020: brief dip below $1,500) as institutions raise cash, then rallies hard once central banks respond with stimulus.
Interest Rates Are the Headwind
Gold's only losses came during periods of extremely high interest rates (1980, 1981–1982). When rates are low or falling, gold thrives. Gold generates no income, so high yields elsewhere draw capital away.
Where Gold Stands in 2026
Current Gold Price
$5,040/oz
As of February 2026
Gold entered 2026 above $5,000 after gaining more than 60% in 2025, its best year since 1979. Trade tensions, persistent inflation, and record central bank buying (863 tonnes in 2025) all fueled the rally. ETF inflows reached record levels as both institutional and retail investors moved into the metal.
J.P. Morgan forecasts gold reaching $5,000 by Q4 2026 with $6,000 possible longer term. The World Gold Council's 2026 outlook expects risk and uncertainty to keep driving demand.
Gold's Price Milestones
$35
1970
Bretton Woods
$850
1980
All-time high
$1,917
2011
Post-crisis peak
$2,072
2020
COVID high
$5,040
2026
Current
Methodology & Sources
This analysis uses recession dates established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official arbiter of U.S. business cycle dates. Gold prices are monthly closing prices. S&P 500 returns are total returns including dividends. All percentage changes are calculated from the gold price at the start of the NBER-dated recession to the gold price at the end.
This page is updated regularly. Last updated: February 2026.
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